The Pacific Institute Drought Response Team provided monthly drought updates during the 2012-2016 California drought. A catalogue of these updates and associated information can be found below.

April 4 – April 26, 2017

Update on the California Drought: April 4 – April 26, 2017

From the Pacific Institute’s California Drought Response Team

Top Story

An Era of Extremes

Looking back over the past five years, meteorological data show that the 60-month period between January 2012 and December 2016 was the hottest on record, with an average temperature of about 60.2 °F. It was also the 11^th driest since record keeping began in 1895. While the California drought developed after months of precipitation deficits, the end of the statewide drought came quite swiftly.

Several severe winter storms since the beginning of the 2016/17 water year (which began on October 1, 2016) resulted in floods and nearly caused the Oroville Dam, the nation’s tallest, to fail. Meanwhile, the Northern California mountain region surpassed the wettest water year on record as early as mid-April. NASA data show that the snowpack in the Tuolumne River Basin in California’s Sierra Nevada is larger than the four previous years combined.

On April 7, 2017 Governor Brown issued Executive Order B-40-17, lifting the statewide drought emergency across the state except in Fresno, Kings, Tulare, and Tuolumne counties. These counties face persistent problems with diminished groundwater supplies, which take longer to replenish than surface water. The continuation of emergency drinking water projects in these counties will help their communities cope with local water shortages.

The drastic change from a record-breaking drought to record-breaking precipitation marks a new era of climate extremes. To safeguard Californians against future droughts, the governor’s Executive Order maintained water reporting requirements and prohibitions on wasteful water practices, such as watering during or immediately after rainfall. State agencies have also issued a plan to continue to make water conservation a way of life in California.

In Other News

The State Water Resources Control Board has approved up to $35 million in Proposition 1 grants and loan forgiveness in order to connect East Porterville residents with dry and contaminated wells to a clean and reliable source of drinking water from the City of Portville. During the drought, hundreds of East Porterville residents had their wells run dry, and those who still have access to groundwater face contamination problems. The project to connect East Porterville to the city of Porterville’s public water system aims to provide a long-term solution to the area’s drought emergency.

Over 3,200 trees in Bakersfield, located in Kern County, are dead or dying due to drought and insect infestation. This unprecedented number represents about 2.7% to 3.2% of the city’s canopy cover. More than half the trees lost since January 2015 have been coast redwoods, the same species as the tallest tree in the world.

Following the state’s exceptional March 30 snow survey results, the Bureau of Reclamation, which manages the Central Valley Project (CVP), has announced an increase of water supply allocation for all South-of-Delta contractors to 100% of their contract supply. This is the first full allocation since 2006.

The Department of Water Resources (DWR) has also increased the allocation of 2017 State Water Project (SWP) water to 100% for contractors north of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and 85% for long-term contractors in other regions. This is the highest allocation since 2006.

Returns of spawning Klamath River Fall Chinook salmon are projected to be the lowest on record in 2017 due to drought, disease, poor ocean conditions, and other issues. As a result, several fishing areas are expected to be closed in 2017 and the open areas are expected to be significantly constrained.

The Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC), which regulates the commercial and recreational fishing of California, Oregon, and Washington fish stocks, will choose among a set of options aimed to limit the total harvest of Klamath River Chinook salmon to no more than 1,600 fish. Only half of this amount would be designated for the Yurok and Hoopa Valley Tribes.

Meanwhile, the Karuk Tribal Council has placed restrictions on subsistence salmon harvests for tribal members for the first time in its history. The reductions in salmon for subsistence and ceremonial use will likely increase economic and cultural burdens on tribes that have long relied on salmon resources.

A new report by the Pacific Institute found that the five-year California drought led to an increase in electricity costs of approximately $2.45 billion. Due to limited hydropower capacity during the drought, electric generation switched to more carbon-intensive options including natural gas, leading to a 10% increase in CO₂ emissions from power plants

The State Water Board recently rescinded the water supply “stress test” requirements and the remaining mandatory conservation standards for urban water suppliers. However, the monthly water use reporting requirements and prohibitions against wasteful practices are still in effect.

Urban water conservation remained strong at 25.1% in February 2017 relative to the 2013 water production of the same month. Water use reductions likely resulted from high levels of precipitation and less water demand for outdoor irrigation, which makes up a significant portion of overall residential water use. The cumulative statewide savings from June 2015 through February 2017 was 22.5%, representing about 2.6 million acre-feet of water conserved. This amount is enough to supply more than 13 million Californians for a year.

A new study by the Alliance for Water Efficiency and Plumbing Manufacturers International (PMI) estimates that replacing non-efficient toilets (1.6 or more gallons per flush) with high efficiency 1.28 gallons-per-flush toilets in residential buildings across Arizona, California, Colorado, Georgia, and Texas could save between 90 and 170 billion gallons of water a year. Toilet flushing is the largest indoor use of water, and toilet replacement is an important strategy to conserve water resources.

California Drought Status

Drought Monitor

The statewide drought emergency is over, but about 15% of California, concentrated along the Southern Coast, remains abnormally dry as of April 26. Another 8% is experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions, the same as last month. About 77% of the state is identified as drought-free.

Precipitation

Since the beginning of the water year on October 1, 2016, cumulative precipitation in California’s three key hydrologic regions has been far above the long-term average. As of April 26, 2017, the Northern Sierra region has experienced the wettest water year on record, with 92.8 inches of precipitation. Cumulative precipitation in the San Joaquin region is currently at 71.0 inches, putting it on course to match or surpass the wettest year record. Meanwhile the Tulare Basin region remains very wet, with 45.8 inches of accumulated precipitation, almost doubling the long-term average for this date.

California’s snowpack conditions remain excellent; total snowpack from the electronic reading was about 193% of average for April 26.

Reservoir Conditions

The water levels in California’s major reservoirs (representing 27.3 million acre-feet of storage) remain the same as last month, representing 80% of statewide capacity. Current storage levels are 110% of the historical average for this time of year, slightly higher than last month. As of April 26, conditions at selected reservoirs were as follows:

The water level at Lake Shasta was at 110% of the historical average for this time of year. Lake Oroville and Folsom Lake were at 99% and 104% of the historical average, respectively.
The water level at the New Melones Reservoir, another major reservoir with a 2.4 million acre-feet capacity, was at 132% of the historical average for this time of year.
The water level at the San Luis Reservoir was at 109% of the historical average for this time of year.
A notable exception is Lake Cachuma, which supplies water to the city of Santa Barbara and other urban areas in Southern California. This reservoir remains well below average, at 58% of the historical average for this time of year as of April 26.

Hydropower

Statewide hydroelectric power generation was about 3,600,000 MWh in February 2017, 132% higher than last year’s February production and 209% higher than the 2012-2016 February average. With record-high precipitation, hydropower production is expected to increase due to snowmelt and will likely peak between May and July 2017.

Groundwater Conditions

Groundwater conditions have likely improved as a result of recent storms, but comprehensive data are updated infrequently. Some recent data are available for adjudicated basins for the 2015-2016 water year.

The most comprehensive data on groundwater conditions are based on measurements taken in fall 2016. Maps of spring and fall groundwater level changes can be found here. Parts of the Tulare Lake, the South Coast, and the Colorado River hydrologic regions experienced groundwater declines of more than 100 feet between fall 2011 and fall 2016.

Additional Resources

The California Data Exchange Center provides California water and weather-related resources including snow surveys and rainfall maps. It is managed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).
A “one-stop shop” for water data and maps is being offered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
The Tree Mortality Viewer shows areas of high hazard zones and related information. The tool was created by the Tree Mortality Task Force, comprised of state and federal agencies, local governments, utilities, and other stakeholders.
The California Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) Portal provides timely information on reported sightings of the potentially toxic blue-green algal blooms and affected water bodies (Last updated 9/20/2016).
The Groundwater Information Center (GIC) interactive map is available for public use. Developed by the California Department of Water Resources, it provides visualization for groundwater depth, changes in groundwater level, as well as land subsidence.
River conditions by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC).
Interactive map of residential and system-wide water use in California by the Pacific Institute.
California climate anomaly maps and tables by the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC).

March 7 – April 13, 2017

Update on the California Drought: March 7 – April 3, 2017

From the Pacific Institute’s California Drought Response Team

Top Story

Bills Aim to Provide Long-Term Drought Solutions

Since record-keeping began in 1895, California has experienced the second wettest December through February this winter with 184% of average precipitation. The latest manual snow survey by the Department of Water Resources (DWR) at Phillips station in the Sierra Nevada found a snow-water equivalent (SWE) of 46.1 inches, 183% of the long-term average. (SWE is the depth of water that theoretically would result if the entire snowpack melted instantaneously.) On average, the snowpack supplies about 30% of water needs in California.

As California moves away from a state of drought emergency, it is time to pivot toward long-term solutions to help safeguard the state against future droughts. Several bills have been proposed to this end, including:

AB 1667: Introduced by Assemblymember Laura Friedman, this bill would require the installation of dedicated landscape water meters on commercial, institutional, industrial, and multifamily service connections. The bill would help water managers measure outdoor water use and better plan for conservation and efficiency measures.
SB 740: Introduced by Sen. Scott Wiener, this bill would require the State Water Resources Control Board, in consultation with other state agencies, to adopt regulations for developing oversight and management programs for the onsite treatment of water for non-potable use, providing an alternative supply of water.
SB 252: Introduced by Sen. Bill Dodd, this bill highlights the need for more transparency in new well construction in order to manage groundwater more sustainably. The bill would require a city or county overlying a critically overdrafted basin to make certain information about new wells publicly available and easily accessible before issuing any new well permit. Additionally, the Department of Water Resources would be required to provide utilities overlying a critically overdrafted basin ongoing technical assistance to implement provisions that comply with the bill. If the new plan is approved, a well completion report which includes information on well capacity (such as the estimated pumping rate) would have to be made available to the public.

In Other News

The US Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) has announced the 2017 water supply allocation for the remaining Central Valley Project (CVP) contractors. All north-of-Delta and in-Delta contractors will receive full allocation. South-of-Delta water contractors serving cities will be allocated 90% of the contract supply while those serving farms and other agricultural areas will be allocated 65% of the contract supply. The low allocation for agricultural water contractors is a result of carryover storage requirements. USBR is likely to increase this initial allocation after more information on snowmelt becomes available. Data on historical water allocations can be found here.
Despite the rain, Californians have been continuing to conserve water. Statewide water savings for January 2017 was 20.5% compared to the December 2013 production baseline, and 17.2% more than January 2016 savings, when state-mandated conservation targets were in place. Savings from June 2015 through January 2017 totaled over 2.50 million acre-feet.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has projected that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (i.e., the part of the ocean near the equator) will remain close to the long-term average through at least spring 2017. However, there is an increasing possibility of El Niño developing in the fall. El Niño is associated with dry weather patterns in Hawaii, the Pacific Northwest, the Rocky Mountains, and the Ohio Valley.
A recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters analyzed the contribution of human water management to the intensification or mitigation of drought in California from 1979 to 2014. Findings showed that in 2014, water management helped to alleviate water shortages by about 50% in Southern California through reservoir reoperation, while human water consumption (primarily through irrigation) increased the duration of drought by 50% and the water deficit in the Central Valley by 50% to 100%.
A new study from Princeton University found that some droughts can travel hundreds of miles from where they originated and that droughts tend to become larger and more intense before conditions improve. The insight that droughts are a dynamic force similar to hurricanes can help predict their development and forecast their paths.
A study by Chapman University researchers to evaluate water conservation messaging found that regardless of the strategy, these messages have led to a negative change in attitude. Initial attitudes were generally highly favorable regarding conservation, but this favorability decreased after message exposure. However, the study did not test for the specific reason for the negative effect.
The Sierra Nevada Conservancy recently published a new report update detailing the dire state of California forests. The combined effects of bark beetles and drought on overgrown forests in the state resulted in about 83 million trees dying between 2014 and 2016. Overgrown forests facilitated the spread of bark beetles. Trees became more vulnerable as the drought reduced their ability to secrete resin to ward away these insects. Additionally, the drought, warmer temperatures, and overgrown forests fueled large, catastrophic wildfires.

California Drought Status

Drought Monitor

Drought conditions in this period remained relatively the same as last month. The “extreme” and “exceptional” drought designations have been removed from the state’s drought monitor. As of March 28, 2017, about 8% of the state is experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions, a one percentage point decrease from last month. About 77% of the state is identified as drought-free.

Precipitation

Since the beginning of the water year on October 1, 2016, cumulative precipitation in California’s three key hydrologic regions has been far above the long-term average. As of April 3, 2017, the Northern Sierra region had received 83 inches of precipitation and is on track to receive more precipitation than in the 1982-1983 water year, the wettest on record. The San Joaquin and Tulare Basin regions remain very wet, although they are unlikely to surpass the wettest years’ records. As of April 3, these regions had received about 65 and 43 inches of cumulative precipitation, respectively, almost doubling the long-term average for this date.

California’s snowpack conditions are excellent. In early April, the electronic reading showed that total snowpack was about 160% of April 1 average (when snowpack is expected to be at its peak). The manual snow survey conducted on March 30 at Phillips station in the Sierra Nevada found a snow-water equivalent (SWE) of 46.1 inches, 183% of the long-term average for this date.

Reservoir Conditions

The water levels in California’s major reservoirs (representing 27.3 million acre-feet of storage) have remained the same as last month, representing 76% of the statewide capacity. Current storage levels are 109% of the historical average for this time of year, about 16 percentage points lower than last month. As of April 3, conditions at selected reservoirs were as follows:

The water level at Lake Shasta was at 110% of the historical average for this time of year. Lake Oroville and Folsom Lake were at 100% and 93% of the historical average, respectively.
The water level at the New Melones Reservoir, another major reservoir with a 2.4 million acre-feet capacity, was at 121% of the historical average for this time of year.
The water level at the San Luis Reservoir was at 109% of the historical average for this time of year.
Lake Cachuma, which supplies water to the city of Santa Barbara and other urban areas in Southern California, remains well below average. Over March, the water level increased slightly from 45% to 48% of capacity. As of April 3, the water level was at 57% of the historical average for this time of year.

Wildfires

We will resume updates when the 2017 wildfire season begins (typically in May).

Hydropower

Statewide hydroelectric power generation improved considerably in January 2017. Production was about 3,800,000 MWh, an increase of 250% over last year’s January production of slightly over one million MWh, and an increase of 16% over 2011’s wet January. With record-high precipitation, hydropower production is expected to increase given snowmelt and will likely peak between May and July 2017.

Groundwater Conditions

The most comprehensive data on groundwater conditions are based on measurements taken in spring 2016. Maps of spring and fall groundwater level changes can be found here. Parts of the Tulare Lake, the South Coast, and the Colorado River hydrologic regions experienced groundwater declines of more than 100 feet between fall 2011 and fall 2015.

Additional Resources

The California Data Exchange Center provides California water and weather-related resources including snow surveys and rainfall maps. It is managed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).
A “one-stop shop” for water data and maps is being offered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
The Tree Mortality Viewer shows areas of high hazard zones and related information. The tool was created by the Tree Mortality Task Force, comprised of state and federal agencies, local governments, utilities, and other stakeholders.
The California Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) Portal provides timely information on reported sightings of the potentially toxic blue-green algal blooms and affected water bodies (Last updated 9/20/2016).
The Groundwater Information Center (GIC) interactive map is available for public use. Developed by the California Department of Water Resources, it provides visualization for groundwater depth, changes in groundwater level, as well as land subsidence.
River conditions by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC).
Interactive map of residential and system-wide water use in California by the Pacific Institute.
California climate anomaly maps and tables by the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC).

February 1 – March 6, 2017

Update on the California Drought: February 1 – March 6, 2017

From the Pacific Institute’s California Drought Response Team

Top Story

Worst of California Drought Over, But Impacts Linger

Despite a significant improvement in drought conditions, impacts remain. The most recent NASA data reveal that parts of the San Joaquin Valley have been sinking due to groundwater depletion. Between May 2015 and September 2016, significant subsidence was measured in two areas near the towns of Chowchilla, south of Merced, and Corcoran, north of Bakersfield. These “bowls” cover hundreds of square miles, affecting aqueducts and flood control infrastructure. Scientists found that subsidence for some areas in the San Joaquin Valley slowed during the winter of 2015-2016, when rainfall matched crop water needs.

Estimates of adult fall-run Chinook salmon swimming off the coast of California, which serve as a basis for the 2017 fishing allowances, suggest another bleak salmon fishing season for California fishermen. Preseason estimates of the Klamath River fall-run Chinook fell by 62% from 142,200 fish in 2016 to 54,200 in 2017. Sacramento River fall-run Chinook estimates fell from about 300,000 fish in 2016 to 230,000 in 2017. These declines are likely related to the drought’s lingering impacts, as adult salmon returning to California rivers were hatched two to four years ago, when river and ocean conditions were poor.

In Other News

- The State Water Board has extended its existing water conservation regulations, prohibiting wasteful water use practices, such as watering lawns after it rains, and setting a conservation mandate for water suppliers projected to face shortages if the drought continues for three more years. A more thorough review of the state’s water supply conditions is being conducted and a reconsideration of the conservation regulations is planned for May 2017.
- New water conservation data reflect continued statewide water saving efforts despite recent rains. Water savings in December 2016 was 20.6% compared to the December 2013 production baseline, 11% higher than December 2015 savings. In all, from June 2015 through December 2016, 2.4 million acre-feet of water were conserved.
- Work on the Oroville Dam continues after the eroded main spillway prompted a two-day evacuation of 188,000 nearby residents. The worst of the crisis seems to be over, unless more severe storms hit Northern California. Last week, the Department of Water Resources halted water releases and shut down the main spillway to remove debris washed into the river channel below and allow the hydroelectric turbines at the base of the dam to resume operation. However, the reduction of the dam’s outflows caused the water level in the Feather River to drop rapidly, resulting in riverbank erosion. Additionally, the reduction of flow has left fall-run Chinook salmon, steelhead trout, and other fish trapped in riverbed pools, prompting rescue operations.
- The US Bureau of Reclamation has announced a full initial allocation for Central Valley Project (CVP) contractors receiving water from the Folsom, New Melones, and Millerton reservoirs, which have unusually high projected runoff from snowmelt. Initial allocation for the remaining water service contractors, predominantly agricultural water districts, will be available in mid-to-late March. The allocation is subject to change based on water conditions.
- On February 2, the second manual snow survey at Phillips Station, near South Lake Tahoe, found a snow water equivalence of 28.1 inches, almost 10 inches higher than the average (or 173% of normal) for this date and about five times higher than the previous month’s measurement. Snow water equivalence is the theoretical depth of water if all snowpack were to melt completely. The California snowpack typically supplies about 30% of the state’s water needs.
- As concern over meeting peak water demand in the summer looms, the City of Santa Barbara is set to restart water production at its mothballed desalination plant in April 2017. The plant, closed since 1992, has a small production capacity of 3,125 acre-feet of water, but could be expanded to produce up to 10,000 acre-feet per year. The capital costs for reactivation are estimated at $70 million with an annual operating and maintenance cost of about $4.1 million at full production, or $1.4 million in non-operation or standby mode.
- The San Jose Water Company, which serves the needs of one million people in San Jose and neighboring communities, has dropped its drought surcharges. The private water company is the last large water supplier in the Bay Area to suspend fines and penalties for excessive water use.

California Drought Status

Drought Monitor

Drought conditions are continuing to improve significantly in California. Precipitation in recent weeks and months has resulted in the removal of the “extreme” and “exceptional” drought designations from the state’s drought monitor. Currently, about 9% of the state is experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions compared to about 50% last month. Over 70% of the state is now identified as being drought-free.

Precipitation

Since the beginning of the water year on October 1, 2016, cumulative precipitation in California’s three key hydrologic regions has been far above the long-term average. As of March 6, 2017, the Northern Sierra and San Joaquin regions had received 78 inches and 62 inches of precipitation, respectively. They are on track to receive more precipitation this water year than in the 1982-1983 water year, the wettest on record. While cumulative precipitation in the Tulare Basin region (currently at 42 inches) is no longer on track to match the region’s wettest recorded water year in 1968-1969, its water level is 205% above average for this date.

California’s snowpack conditions are excellent. As of March 6, total snowpack was about 180% of normal, and 167% of the April 1 average (when snowpack is expected to be at its peak).

Reservoir Conditions

The water levels in California’s major reservoirs (representing 27.3 million acre-feet of storage) have increased by 11 percentage points over the past month, and now represent 76% of the statewide capacity. Current storage levels represent 115% of the historical average for this time of year, about 5 percentage points higher than last month. As of March 6, conditions at selected reservoirs were as follows:

The water level at Lake Shasta was at 102% of the historical average for this time of year. Lake Oroville and Folsom Lake were at 115% and 68% of the historical average, respectively.
The water level at the New Melones Reservoir, another major reservoir with a 2.4 million acre-feet capacity, was at 110% of the historical average for this time of year.
The water level at the San Luis Reservoir was at 115% of the historical average for this time of year.
Lake Cachuma, which supplies water to the City of Santa Barbara and other urban areas in Southern California, remains well below average. Over January, the water level increased from 12% to 45% of capacity. As of March 6, the water level was at 54% of the historical average for this time of year.

Wildfires

We will resume updates when the 2017 wildfire season begins (typically in May).

Hydropower

Statewide hydroelectric power generation improved considerably in December 2016. Production was about 2,300,000 MWh, an increase of 176% over last year’s December production of 840,000 MWh and 12% over the 2001-2011 average for the same month. Total hydropower production for 2016 was nearly 29,000,000 MWh, the highest since the drought began in 2012, but still 14% below the average annual production for the period of 2001 to 2011.

Groundwater Conditions

Groundwater conditions have likely improved as a result of recent storms, but comprehensive data are updated infrequently.

Additional Resources

The California Data Exchange Center provides California water and weather-related resources including snow surveys and rainfall maps. It is managed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).
A “one-stop shop” for water data and maps is being offered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
The Tree Mortality Viewer shows areas of high hazard zones and related information. The tool was created by the Tree Mortality Task Force, comprised of state and federal agencies, local governments, utilities, and other stakeholders.
The California Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) Portal provides timely information on reported sightings of the potentially toxic blue-green algal blooms and affected water bodies (Last updated 9/20/2016).
The Groundwater Information Center (GIC) interactive map is available for public use. It was developed by the California Department of Water Resources.
River conditions by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC).
Interactive map of residential and system-wide water use in California by the Pacific Institute.
California climate anomaly maps and tables by the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC).

January 4 - 31, 2017

Special Drought Update — February 13, 2017

Another series of storms has brought heavy rain and strong winds to much of California, causing widespread flooding, especially in Northern California, and threatening the structural integrity of the Oroville Dam, the nation’s tallest. Counties and cities near Lake Oroville have issued emergency evacuation orders for 188,000 residents due to eroded primary and emergency spillways which could lead to the uncontrolled releases of water.

Drought conditions have continued to improve, with about 11% of the state experiencing severe to extreme drought, compared to 20% last week. The area no longer experiencing short-term drought effects has increased from 40% to 41.5% over the past week. La Niña conditions have subsided and normal sea surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere are expected to continue through spring 2017. Despite these improvements, drought impacts on overdrafted groundwater basins, forests, and aquatic species in California are long term and will take multiple above-average precipitation years to be resolved.

Update on the California Drought: January 4 – 31, 2017

From the Pacific Institute’s California Drought Response Team

Top Story

A Silver Lining as California Trends Toward More Extreme Weather

The recent wet weather has been topping the news over the last several weeks. In response to severe storms, Governor Jerry Brown has declared a state of emergency in 50 counties across California. The proclamation will help secure funding to help communities respond to and recover from flooding, mudslides, erosion, debris flow, and damage to roads and highways.

Due to winter storms, the U.S. Drought Monitor has removed the designation of “exceptional drought” for California. More than half of the state, however, is still experiencing moderate to extreme drought conditions, with the drought in parts of Ventura, Santa Barbara, Kern, and Los Angeles counties more severe than in the rest of the state. Despite considerable improvements in reservoir and snowpack conditions, groundwater aquifers, forests, and endangered fish species may take several years to recover from drought impacts.

In Other News

On February 7, the State Water Resources Control Board is scheduled to decide on the extension or modification of statewide conservation rules. State Water Board staff have recommended that the mandate be re-evaluated in May, when the winter rainy season will be over. Meanwhile, the San Diego County Water Authority has announced that the region’s drought has ended and requested that Governor Brown and the State Water Board rescind emergency drought regulations immediately.
The Department of Water Resources has increased the 2017 State Water Project allocation from 45% to 60% due to recent storms and current water supply conditions. This increase represents a change from 1.9 million acre-feet to 2.5 million acre-feet.
The Bureau of Reclamation released an outline of Central Valley Project (CVP) water supply conditions. As of mid-January, total CVP water storage was at 107% of the 15-year average. The Bureau plans to announce its initial CVP allocation on or before February 15.
Stormwater capture systems in Los Angeles County have collected more than 22 billion gallons of stormwater since mid-October, enough to serve the needs of more than half a million residents.
The city of Roseville and the Placer County Water Agency have agreed to invest a combined $140,000 toward the planning of the Sites Reservoir project, which if successful would become California’s seventh-largest reservoir. The reservoir is projected to cost about $4.4 billion.
The water level at Lake Mead, an important water source for Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California, may fall enough to trigger water cuts in early 2018. While California will not be immediately affected due to its senior water rights, continued water declines will increase the state’s vulnerability to shortages. For now, federal forecasters remain “cautiously optimistic,” since above-average snowpack in the Rockies could keep the water supply high enough to avoid a shortage declaration.

California Drought Status

Drought Monitor

A series of winter storms have resulted in record-level precipitation and a removal of the exceptional drought designation from the state’s drought monitor. Currently, about 39% of the state is identified as drought-free. Areas under extreme drought conditions fell from 41% to only 2% over the past month. Nearly half of the state is still experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions.

Precipitation

Since the beginning of the water year on October 1, 2016, cumulative precipitation in California’s three key hydrologic regions is far above the long-term average. As of January 31, 2017, the Northern Sierra and San Joaquin regions have received 53 inches and 43 inches of precipitation, respectively, and are on track to receive more precipitation than in the 1982-1983 water year, the wettest on record. Cumulative precipitation in the Tulare Basin region, currently at 30 inches, is also on track to match the region’s wettest recorded water year in 1968-1969.

California’s snowpack conditions are excellent. Total snowpack is about 180% of normal for January 31, 2017, and 108% of the April 1 average (when snowpack is supposed to be at its peak).

Reservoir Conditions

The water levels in California’s major reservoirs (representing 27.3 million acre-feet of storage) have increased by 19 percentage points over the past month, and now represent 65% of the statewide capacity. Current storage levels represent 110% of the historical average for this time of year, about 17 percentage points higher than last month. Conditions in most reservoirs have improved:

The water level at Lake Shasta is currently at 117% of the historical average for this time of year. Lake Oroville and Folsom Lake are at 124% and 81% of the historical average, respectively.
The water level at the New Melones Reservoir, another major reservoir with a 2.4 million acre-feet capacity, is at 70% of the historical average for this time of year.
The water level at the San Luis Reservoir is now at 105% of the historical average for this time of year.
Lake Cachuma, which supplies water to the city of Santa Barbara and other urban areas in Southern California, remains well below average. Over January, the water level increased from 8% to 12% of capacity. The current level is 16% of the historical average for this time of year. /li>

Wildfires

We will resume updates when the 2017 wildfire season begins (typically in May).

Hydropower

Statewide hydroelectric power generation improved in November 2016. Production was about 1,700,000 MWh, an increase of 160% over last year’s November production of 650,000 MWh, but it was 4% below the 2001-2011 average for the same month.

Groundwater Conditions

Groundwater conditions have likely improved as a result of recent storms, but data are updated infrequently.

Additional Resources

The California Data Exchange Center provides California water and weather-related resources including snow surveys and rainfall maps. It is managed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).
A “one-stop shop” for water data and maps is being offered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
The Tree Mortality Viewer shows areas of high hazard zones and related information. The tool was created by the Tree Mortality Task Force, comprised of state and federal agencies, local governments, utilities, and other stakeholders.
The California Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) Portal provides timely information on reported sightings of the potentially toxic blue-green algal blooms and affected water bodies.
The Groundwater Information Center (GIC) interactive map is available for public use. It was developed by the California Department of Water Resources.
River conditions by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC).
Interactive map of residential and system-wide water use in California by the Pacific Institute.
California climate anomaly maps and tables by the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC).

December 13, 2016 - January 3, 2017

Special Drought Update

Pacific storms in early January have brought widespread, intense precipitation to California, providing relief to some drought-stricken regions but also flooding. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, about 35% of the state is no longer experiencing drought, and the proportion of areas under extreme-to-exceptional drought fell from 38% on January 3rd to 28 percent by January 10. Cumulative precipitation hit a record high, doubling the historical average for this time of year. While a weak La Niña persists, sea surface temperature will transition back to normal by February 2017. Surface reservoirs, especially in Northern California, are beginning to refill, but groundwater aquifers in many parts of the state remain severely overdrafted and will take far longer to recover.

The New Year Begins with Improved Drought Conditions, but California’s Snowpack Still Well Below Average

Happy New Year! Winter storms have improved drought conditions in many parts of the state, especially in the North Coast. Yet, several warm storms in December brought more rain than snow, and the snowpack remains well below average. The first manual snow survey on January 3 at Phillips Station near Lake Tahoe found a snow-water equivalence of six inches, or about 53% of the early-January average of 11.3 inches. The snow-water equivalence is the theoretical depth of water that would result if the snowpack melted instantaneously.

Statewide, the electronic reading shows that the snowpack is about 70% of average for this time of year. Snowpack conditions will likely improve in the coming months, as January and February are among California’s wettest months. Snow measurements between January and April 2017 will guide water management decisions for the rest of the year.

In Other News

President Obama has signed the Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation (WIIN) Act, which contains a contentious drought package for California. While President Obama’s statement on the WIIN Act urged “continued application and implementation of the Endangered Species Act,” some fear that the bill will override endangered species protections.
Statewide water savings was 18.8% in November, a decrease from 20.2% one year ago. Cumulative savings from June 2015 through November 2016 is 2.35 million acre-feet or 22.6% compared with the same months in 2013. The State Water Board will present a staff proposal to extend emergency conservation regulations for public discussion on January 18. This proposal may re-establish state-mandated conservation targets if the drought worsens or if conservation levels decline drastically.
The Department of Water Resources (DWR) has boosted the State Water Project (SWP) allocation from 20% to 45%, citing rising reservoir levels from December storms. The DWR will continue to revise SWP allocation based on changing water conditions.
Nine residents of the town of Hillsborough have filed a lawsuit over their tiered rates and penalties for excessive water use. Because Hillsborough’s water department buys water at a fixed cost from the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, the lawsuit alleges that the town is charging customers more than the cost of providing water. They argue that this would violate Proposition 218, which was passed by California voters in 1996. The town rejected this argument and countered that their tiered rates reflect the cost of providing water service, which includes sizing the pipes and pump stations to accommodate higher water demand. Further, the town argued that penalties are not subject to Proposition 218.
A recent study by researchers from the University of California, Davis, and the U.S. Forest Service found that severe wildfires have killed many mature, seed-producing trees, resulting in large forest areas where trees cannot regenerate. Historically, severe wildfires were uncommon, but fire suppression policies and other management practices have led to high fuel loads, which contribute to larger wildfires.
Researchers from the University of California, Irvine, found that the state’s electricity sector generated 33% more carbon dioxide annually between 2012 and 2014, compared to 2011. The California drought has increased the carbon footprint of energy as the more carbon-intensive natural gas was substituted for the decline in hydropower production.
The City of Santa Barbara has declared Stage Three Drought Conditions on December 6, requiring a 40% citywide reduction of water use. Irrigation of lawns is prohibited starting January 1, 2017, with some exceptions. Given recent storms, the City may modify its drought status in the coming weeks.

California Drought Status

Drought Monitor

About 41% of the state remains in extreme-to-exceptional drought, two percentage points less than a month ago. Moderate-to-severe drought conditions affect 28% of the state, four percentage points less than last month. About 17% of the state is now identified as drought-free. The North Coast region has seen the greatest recovery from the drought.

Precipitation

Since the beginning of the water year on October 1, 2016, cumulative precipitation in California’s three key hydrologic regions are now average or above average. The Northern Sierra region is on the course to match the wettest winter in 1982-1983, having accumulated 30.5 inches of precipitation as of January 3, 2017. In the San Joaquin region, cumulative precipitation is about 2 inches above average. After a wet December, cumulative precipitation in the Tulare Basin rose to about 10.9 inches, slightly above the long-term average.

However, most precipitation fell as rain and the state’s snowpack is still about 70% of normal (long-term average) for January 3, 2017.

The NOAA’s next El Niño/ La Niña forecast will be available on January 12, 2017.

Reservoir Conditions

Due to winter reservoir releases, the water level in California’s major reservoirs (representing 27.3 million acre-feet of storage) has decreased by four percentage points to 46% of the statewide capacity compared to a month ago. Current storage levels represent 93% of the historical average for this time of year, about six percentage points higher than last month. Conditions in individual reservoirs have generally improved. For example:

The water level at Lake Shasta is at 118% of the historical average. Lake Oroville and Folsom Lake are at 91% and 83% of the historical average, respectively.
The water level at the New Melones Reservoir, another major reservoir with a 2.4 million acre-feet capacity, is at 46% of the historical average.
The water level at the San Luis Reservoir hit its lowest level in 27 years in mid-August and now stands at 90% of the historical average for this time of year.
Lake Cachuma, which supplies water to the city of Santa Barbara and other urban areas in Southern California, increased slightly to 8% of its capacity since August 2016. The current level is 11% of the historical average for this time of year.

Wildfires

Areas affected by catastrophic wildfires in 2016 were about 36% less than in 2015. By the year’s end, a total of about 7,200 catastrophic wildfires have burned across 570,000 acres of the state, compared to 890,000 acres in 2015.

Please note that wildfire data are preliminary and may change. They are updated daily by the National Interagency Coordination Center.

Hydropower

Statewide hydroelectric power generation in October 2016 was about 1,700,000 MWh, an increase of 89% over last year’s October production of 920,000 MWh. Total generation was about 12% below the 2001-2011 average for the same month.

Groundwater Conditions

Additional Resources

The California Data Exchange Center provides California water and weather related resources including snow surveys and rainfall maps. It is managed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).
A “one-stop shop” for water data and maps is being offered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
The Tree Mortality Viewer shows areas of high hazard zones and related information. The tool was created by the Tree Mortality Task Force, comprised of state and federal agencies, local governments, utilities, and other stakeholders.
The California Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) Portal provides timely information on reported sightings of the potentially toxic blue-green algal blooms and affected water bodies.
The Groundwater Information Center (GIC) interactive map is available for public use. It was developed by the California Department of Water Resources.
River conditions by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC).
Interactive map of residential and system-wide water use in California by the Pacific Institute.
California climate anomaly maps and tables by the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC).

November 8 - December 12, 2016

California’s Controversial Drought Provisions Passed by Congress

A controversial California drought package was approved by the House and the Senate after its inclusion in the fast-moving $10 billion Water Infrastructure Improvements for the Nation Act a week earlier. Crafted by Republican House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein, the California-related provisions increase water pumping from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta for farming and other purposes in Central and Southern California. The bill also directs $558 million to desalination, water recycling, and water storage projects, among other proposals.

The California drought package was opposed by retiring Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) on the grounds that it would undermine the Endangered Species Act protections and adversely affect fisheries and fishing communities. It marks a significant shift in federal policy established under the 1992 Central Valley Project Improvements Act (CVPIA), which focused on the protection of the Delta and endangered species.

The Water Infrastructure Improvement Act passed with a 360-61 vote by the House and a 78-21 vote by the Senate. It is awaiting approval by President Barack Obama.

In Other News

Californians have continued to save water despite the easing of mandated conservation targets in May 2016. Urban water use in October was 19.5% less than the same month in 2013. While water savings were 2.8 percentage points lower than in October 2015, they represented a slight improvement from the 18.3% savings in September 2016. Cumulative water savings from June 2015 through October 2016 were 22.8%, or about 2.3 million acre-feet.
California state agencies recently released a draft plan to move the state toward using water more wisely, preparing for future droughts, and preventing water emergencies for vulnerable communities. The draft plan helps to fulfill the first directive of the California Water Action Plan: “Make Conservation a California Way of Life.” Proposed measures include developing new water use targets for urban water utilities that go beyond the existing requirements, permanent prohibitions of wasteful water use practices, monthly water use reporting, and reducing leaks in the water-delivery system.
The Department of Water Resources (DWR) set the initial State Water Project (SWP) allocation at 20%, citing that “October’s storms and subsequent rainfall have brightened the picture, but [California] could still end up in a sixth year of drought.” Initial allocations frequently change. For example, last year’s allocation was initially set at 10% and was later revised to 60%.
The U.S. Forest Service has identified an additional 36 million dead trees across California, bringing the total number of dead trees since 2010 to over 102 million on 7.7 million acres of the state’s drought-stricken forests. More trees are expected to die in the coming months and years because of the drought.
To limit wildfire threats, Cal Fire – the state’s fire management agency – has awarded more than $15 million to various fire safe councils and resource conservation districts across California. These Fire Prevention and Tree Mortality Grants will support fire prevention and suppression programs in rural California.
The Rancho California Water District in Riverside County has started a program to help district growers replace water-intensive crops, such as avocado, with lower water-use crops, such as wine grapes and citrus trees. The program is funded by a $3 million grant from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Department of Water Resources, as well as district resources.
The population of endangered winter-run Chinook salmon has rebounded this year. About twice as many winter-run salmon have been counted on the Sacramento River compared to 2015. Although conditions are still poor, this is a promising development as only 5% and 3% of juvenile winter-run salmon survived in 2014 and 2015, respectively. The long-term average survival rate is about 26.4%.

California Drought Status

Drought Monitor

About 43% of the state remains in extreme-to-exceptional drought, the same as three months ago. Moderate-to-severe drought conditions affect 32% of the state, the same as last month. About 12% of the state is now identified as drought-free, namely Del Norte, Humboldt, Siskiyou, and most of Trinity and Shasta counties.

Precipitation

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s December forecast, La Niña weather conditions are now present, but the weather pattern will likely transition back to normal during January to March 2017. La Niña is expected to contribute to above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation across much of the southern regions of the U.S., including Southern California.

Since the beginning of the water year on October 1, 2016, cumulative precipitation in California’s three key hydrologic regions have varied quite drastically. The Northern Sierra region is experiencing the wettest winter in 30 years, having received about 22.9 inches of rain and snow. In the San Joaquin region, cumulative precipitation is about 2.5 inches above average. However, the Tulare Basin continues to receive very low levels of precipitation, similar to the dry 2014/15 pattern.

Despite a relatively wet start to the winter season, recent storms have not restored the state’s snowpack to normal levels. Statewide snow-water equivalent (or the amount of water contained within the snowpack) is about 57% of the normal level for December 12.

Reservoir Conditions

After the October rains, the water level in California’s major reservoirs (representing 27.3 million acre-feet of storage) has increased by five percentage points to 50% of the statewide capacity compared to a month ago (as of 12/12/16). Current storage levels represent 87% of the historical average for this time of year, also five percentage points higher than last month. Conditions in individual reservoirs vary across the state, with those in the north continuing to do better than those further south. For example:

The water level at Lake Shasta is at 109% of the historical average. Lake Oroville and Folsom Lake are at 73% and 127% of the historical average, respectively.
The water level at the New Melones Reservoir, another major reservoir with a 2.4 million acre-feet capacity, is at 40% of the historical average.
The water level at the San Luis Reservoir hit its lowest level in 27 years in mid-August and now stands at 80% of the historical average for this date.
Lake Cachuma, which supplies water to the city of Santa Barbara and other urban areas in Southern California, remains very low at 7% of its capacity at least since August 2016. The current level is 10% of the historical average.

Wildfires

Since the beginning of 2016, a total of approximately 7,200 wildfires have burned almost 570,000 acres across the state (as of 12/12/16). There are now 5 active wildfires in California, according to InciWeb, a national all-risk incident information management system. All wildfires are fully contained.

Please note that wildfire data are preliminary and may change. They are updated daily by the National Interagency Coordination Center.

Hydropower

Statewide hydroelectric power generation in September 2016 was about 2,300,000 MWh, representing a 65% increase over last year’s September production of 1,400,000 MWh. Total generation is about 7% below the 2001-2011 average for the same month.

Groundwater Conditions

Additional Resources

The California Data Exchange Center provides California water and weather related resources including snow surveys and rainfall maps. It is managed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).
A “one-stop shop” for water data and maps is being offered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
The Tree Mortality Viewer shows areas of high hazard zones and related information. The tool was created by the Tree Mortality Task Force, comprised of state and federal agencies, local governments, utilities, and other stakeholders.
The California Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) Portal provides timely information on reported sightings of the potentially toxic blue-green algal blooms and affected water bodies.
The Groundwater Information Center (GIC) interactive map is available for public use. It was developed by the California Department of Water Resources.
River conditions by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC).
Interactive map of residential and system-wide water use in California by the Pacific Institute.
California climate anomaly maps and tables by the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC).

November 7, 2016

Drought Conditions Improved, But the Shadow of La Niña Looms

October rains have brought some relief, especially in the northwestern parts of the state, including Humboldt, Del Norte, Siskiyou, and most of Trinity and Shasta counties. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 12% of the state is no longer experiencing drought conditions, the highest percentage of drought-free area since March 2013. However, about 43% of the state is still experiencing extreme-to-exceptional drought, unchanged from three months ago.

Satellite images from September and October 2001 and the same months in 2016 reveal the drought’s toll on ten California reservoirs. Scientists have warned that it will still take several years of above-normal precipitation for soil moisture levels, reservoirs, and groundwater aquifers to recover.

At the same time, a new forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center suggests that the likelihood of La Niña, a climate pattern linked to drier weather in California, has increased. There is now a 70% chance that La Niña will develop in the fall of 2016 and a 55% chance that it may persist during the winter of 2016/2017.

In Other News

Urban water use for September 2016 was 18.3% less than water use for September 2013. This value represents an eight-percentage point drop from the September 2015 water savings of 26.2%. Houeshold water use was highest in the Colorado River region, at 188 gallons per person per day. The San Francisco Bay and the North Coast regions had the lowest household water use, averaging about 80 gallons per person per day.
A study by researchers at Cornell University found that the risk of megadrought in the Southwestern United States may increase to 99% by the end of this century if temperatures continues to rise.
The Department of Water Resources (DWR), Cal Fire, and the National Weather Service (NWS) warned of the potential for flash flooding during the rainy winter months. Areas affected by wildfires are at a higher risk of erosion and flash floods during a period of intense rainfall because vegetation has been burned away and bare grounds tend to repel water.
A recent report by the Bay Institute entitled “San Francisco Bay: The Freshwater-Starved Estuary” shows that large-scale water diversions in the Bay’s watershed have exacerbated drought impacts on ecosystems and caused the Bay to be critically dry in 19 of the last 30 years.
Researchers at the University of California, Los Angeles, and Oregon State University have concluded that greenhouse gases played a role in the record-low 2015 snowpack in California. Through regional climate model simulations, the study showed that both human influence and sea surface temperature anomalies contributed to the risk of snow drought, or periods of a lack of snow, in California. This correlation is even stronger in Oregon and Washington.
A mass of unusually warm water, also known as “the Blob,” has moved into the northeastern region of the Pacific Ocean. Since 2014, it has worsened drought impacts on anadromous fish (e.g., salmon) and other marine species by disrupting the ocean food chain and creating conditions that have led to toxic algal blooms along the coast of Western United States.
Scientists have detected high levels of a freshwater algae toxin known as microcystin in shellfish in the San Francisco Bay. Microcystins are produced by the blue-green algae that is blooming in many of California’s waterways, partially because of the drought.

California Drought Status

Drought Monitor

While 43% of the state remains in extreme-to-exceptional drought, important changes have occurred in the northwestern parts of California as of November 1, 2016. Areas affected by moderate-to-severe drought conditions have declined from 41% to 32% of the state over the past month. About 12% of the state is now identified as drought-free, namely Del Norte, Humboldt, Siskiyou, and most of Trinity and Shasta counties.

Precipitation

The NOAA’s October forecast indicates that La Niña has a 70% chance of developing this fall, and a 55% chance of persisting during the winter of 2016/2017. This new prediction brings back concerns about continued drought conditions.

The new water year began on October 1, 2016. A 3-month precipitation outlook (Dec-Jan-Feb) shows a normal precipitation pattern for Northern California, but a slightly below average precipitation for Southern California.

Reservoir Conditions

After the October rains, water levels in California’s major reservoirs (representing 27.3 million acre-feet of storage) have increased by one percentage point to 44% of the statewide capacity compared to a month ago. Current storage levels represent 81% of the historical average for this time of year, five percentage points higher than the previous month. Conditions in individual reservoirs vary across the state, with those in the north continuing to do better than those further south. For example:

The water level at Lake Shasta is at 105% of the historical average. Lake Oroville and Folsom Lake are at 73% and 76% of the historical average, respectively.
The water level at the New Melones Reservoir, another major reservoir with a 2.4 million acre-feet capacity, is at 38% of the historical average.
The water level at the San Luis Reservoir hit its lowest level in 27 years in mid-August and now stands at 59% of the historical average for this date.
Lake Cachuma, which supplies water to the city of Santa Barbara and other urban areas in Southern California, remains very low at 7% of its capacity, or 10% of the historical average.

Wildfires

Since the beginning of 2016, a total of 7,206 wildfires have burned over 560,000 acres across the state. There are currently 10 active wildfires in California, according to InciWeb, a national all-risk incident information management system. All the largest active wildfires (over 8,000 acres) are fully contained.

Please note that wildfire data are preliminary and may change. They are updated daily by the National Interagency Coordination Center

Hydropower

Hydroelectric power generation in August 2016 was about 2,800,000 MWh, representing a 70% increase over last year’s August production of 1,700,000 MWh. However, hydropower generation is still 16% below the 2001-2011 average for the same month.

Groundwater Conditions

The California Data Exchange Center provides California water and weather related resources including snow surveys and rainfall maps. It is managed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).
A “one-stop shop” for water data and maps is being offered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
The Tree Mortality Viewer shows areas of high hazard zones and relation information. The tool was created by the Tree Mortality Task Force, comprised of state and federal agencies, local governments, utilities, and other stakeholders.
The California Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) Portal provides timely information on reported sightings of the potentially toxic blue-green algal blooms and affected water bodies.
The Groundwater Information Center (GIC) interactive map is available for public use. It was developed by the California Department of Water Resources.
River conditions by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC).
Interactive map of residential and system-wide water use in California by the Pacific Institute.
California climate anomaly maps and tables by the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC).

September 27, 2016

California May Be Entering Its Sixth Year of Drought, but Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

The 2016 water year has come and gone. Starting on October 1, 2015 and ending on September 30, 2016, the past water year brought some respite to parched areas in Northern California, which received average to slightly above average precipitation, although precipitation in Southern California remained well below average. In Northern California, spring runoff was significantly below average due to several factors, including the replenishment of depleted soil moisture, increased uptake by vegetation, and less precipitation falling as snow. The Department of Water Resources (DWR) is beginning to describe this low snowpack condition as a “snow drought,” and it is likely to occur more frequently as a result of climate change.

In a new report summarizing drought conditions for the 2016 water year, DWR shows that the 2012-2015 period encompasses the driest four consecutive water years in California since 1895, with statewide precipitation at only 62.2 inches. The second driest four consecutive years was 1917-1920, with 63.1 inches of precipitation, when California had a much smaller population and far fewer acres of farmland.

The forecast for the 2017 water year is still uncertain. The weakened La Niña conditions offer the possibility of a wetter year ahead, but forecasters remain wary. It will take a long time before the end of drought finally arrives as the state needs multiple, consecutive wet winters, and ideally cooler years, to increase soil moisture and allow the mountain snowpack to accumulate.

Despite some grim facts about the drought, California is taking important steps to glean opportunities from this crisis. At the end of September, Governor Jerry Brown signed several water bills that will help prepare the state for future droughts and address ongoing water scarcity concerns. Here is a selection of noteworthy legislation:

AB 1755 (The Open and Transparent Water Data Act) requires the DWR and relevant agencies to develop protocols for data sharing, documentation, quality control, public access, and other tools – all of which will aid in water transfer decision-making process.
SB 552 enables the state to contract with third-party administrators with expertise in improving failing public water systems and helping to provide disadvantaged communities with safe, affordable drinking water.
SB 1263 prevents the construction of new public water systems that will be unable to provide affordable, safe drinking water in the reasonably foreseeable future.
SB 814 prohibits excessive water use by a residential customer during a declared drought period. It authorizes methods to discourage excessive use, including water budgets and drought surcharges and penalties.
AB 2594 expands on the existing law and authorizes a public entity that captures stormwater to use the captured water under certain circumstances.

In Other News

The State Water Resources Control Board announced that urban water conservation for August 2016 fell to 18%, a decrease from 27% savings in August 2015. Conservation has dropped steeply among some local water suppliers but remains strong among others. If drought conditions worsen along with conservation efforts, the state may bring back mandatory conservation measures in January 2017.
A new study, using aerial imagery and geospatial techniques, found that land conversion to almond orchards between 2007 and 2014 increased annual statewide water use for irrigation by 27%. While some orchards were simply converted to almonds from other crops (such as corn, cotton, winter wheat, and tomatoes), others were planted on formerly natural landscapes, including wetlands. Addendum: The Almond Board has released a statement disputing these findings.
Extensive toxic algal blooms continue to invade California waterways. More incidents have been found in Grantline Canal and the Old River surrounding the Fabian Tract in San Joaquin County. Concentrations of the toxin are patchy; the highest levels observed are at the western edge of the Fabian Tract. Other cases of algal bloom have led to the closure of two more lakes in the San Francisco Bay Area: Lake Temescal in Oakland and Quarry Lakes in Fremont. Contact with and/or consumption of the blue-green algae may cause allergic skin rashes, mouth ulcers, vomiting, diarrhea, and cold and flu-like symptoms.
Water contractors in the San Joaquin Valley are suing the Bureau of Reclamation for $350 million for not delivering water to them in 2014. Despite the fact that the Bureau’s decision was in response to the drought, the lawsuit, filed by 17 water districts, claims that there were sufficient supplies in Millerton Lake that year and that the decision caused farmers and the water districts to lose millions of dollars.
Five Santa Barbara County water agencies – Carpinteria, Guadalupe, Santa Maria, Solvang, and the Santa Ynez River Water Conservation District Improvement District No.1 – are seeking to reacquire their suspended amount of State Water Project deliveries, approximately 12,000 acre-feet per year, to serve as a drought buffer. This move is part of a response to extremely low water levels in Lake Cachuma, one of their main water sources.

California Drought Status

Drought Monitor

There continues to be no change in drought conditions over the past two weeks. Severe-to-exceptional drought extends across 43% of the state, while moderate-to-severe drought extends across an additional 41% of the state.

Precipitation

The NOAA’s September forecast indicates that La Niña may not emerge this winter, as its chance of occurring has fallen below the 50% threshold.

The new water year began on October 1. A 1.5-month precipitation outlook (Nov-Dec-Jan) shows a normal precipitation pattern, but it is too early to know how conditions will evolve.

Reservoir Conditions

Water levels in California’s major reservoirs (representing 27.3 million acre-feet of storage) have fallen by three percentage points to 43% of the statewide capacity over the past two weeks. Compared to historical data, current storage levels represent 77% of the reported average for this time of year, three percentage points lower than two weeks ago. Conditions in individual reservoirs vary across the state, with those in the north of the state doing better than those further south. For example:

The water level at Lake Shasta is at 102% of the historical average. Lake Oroville and Folsom Lake are at 73% and 55% of the historical average, respectively.
The water level at the New Melones Reservoir, another major reservoir with a 2.4 million acre-feet capacity, remains at 39% of the historical average.
The water level at the San Luis Reservoir hit its lowest level in 27 years in mid-August and now stands at 52% of the historical average for this date.
Lake Cachuma, which supplies water to the city of Santa Barbara and other urban areas in Southern California, is still at 7% of its capacity, or 9% of the historical average.

Wildfires

Since the beginning of 2016, a total of 6,645 wildfires have burned over 600,000 acres across the state. The fires have spread by 87,000 acres, or 17%, over the last two weeks. The Soberanes Fire in Los Padres National Forest is still the largest active wildfire in the state, covering more than 130,000 acres and larger than the Gap Fire, Cedar Fire, and Rey Fire combined.

Hydropower

Hydroelectric power generation in July 2016 was about 3,400,000 MWh, representing an 82% increase over last year’s July production of 1,900,000 MWh. However, hydropower generation is still 12% below the 2001-2011 average for the same month.

Groundwater Conditions

The most recent data on groundwater conditions are based on measurements taken in spring 2016. Maps of spring and fall groundwater level changes can be found here. Parts of the Tulare Lake, the South Coast, and the Colorado River hydrologic regions have experienced groundwater declines in excess of 100 feet between Fall 2011 and Fall 2015.
Addendum: A new study, using aerial imagery and geospatial techniques, found that land conversion to almond orchards between 2007 and 2014 increased annual statewide water use for irrigation by 27%. While some orchards were simply converted to almonds from other crops (such as corn, cotton, winter wheat, and tomatoes), others were planted on formerly natural landscapes, including wetlands. The Almond Board has released a statement disputing these findings.

Additional Resources

The California Data Exchange Center, provides California water and weather related resources including snow surveys and rainfall maps. It is managed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR).
A “One-stop shop” for water data and maps is being offered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA).
The Tree Mortality Viewer shows areas of high hazard zones and relation information. The tool was created by the Tree Mortality Task Force, comprised of state and federal agencies, local governments, utilities, and other stakeholders.
The California Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) Portal provides timely information on reported sightings of the potentially toxic blue-green algal blooms and affected water bodies.
The Groundwater Information Center (GIC) interactive map is available for public use. It was developed by the California Department of Water Resources.
River conditions by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC).
Interactive map of residential and system-wide water use in California by the Pacific Institute.
California climate anomaly maps and tables by the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC).

September 13, 2016

Water Management: A Balancing Act

The State Water Resources Control Board released a draft proposal to update water quality requirements for salinity levels in the southern Delta and water flows in the San Joaquin River and its tributaries, namely the Stanislaus, Tuolumne, and Merced rivers. The proposal aims to increase flows for fish and wildlife and lower salt levels to protect farms in the southern Delta and recommends leaving 30% to 50% of unimpaired flow in the Lower San Joaquin River and its tributaries, with a starting point of 40%.

These changes are part of a balancing act to protect at-risk native fish species and their sensitive habitats and to provide sufficient water for human uses. Addressing these issues will also provide a platform for responding to future droughts and adapting to climate change.

In Other News

Across California, toxic algal blooms have affected more than 40 lakes and waterways in 2016, the highest count ever recorded and nearly double the number reported in 2015. These algal blooms are driven by drought-related factors, such as warmer temperatures, reduced flows, and high nutrient concentrations. More information can be found on the state’s Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) portal, which provides information on voluntarily reported sightings of these blooms and the affected water bodies.
The Open and Transparent Water Data Act (AB 1755) has been signed into law. Authored by Assemblymember Bill Dodd, D-Solano, the law requires the California Department of Water Resources to create, operate, and maintain a statewide integrated water data platform that would integrate existing water and ecological data from multiple databases to support data sharing and water transfer activities across the state.
Governor Jerry Brown signed the Water Efficiency: Landscape Irrigation Equipment Act (AB 1928), which postpones the deadline for the California Energy Commission to establish water efficiency standards for landscape irrigation equipment and labeling requirements to January 1, 2019. Previous laws required an adoption of performance standards and labeling requirements on or after January 1, 2010, and prohibited the sale of equipment not meeting those standards on or after January 2012. However, limited funding and other factors have led to the delay in meeting these deadlines.
A recent study led by a UCLA researcher suggests that the Pacific Ocean’s response to greenhouse gases could extend drought-like conditions for centuries. Through radiative forcing, natural climatic forces have caused centuries-long and even millennia-long periods of dryness in California during the past 10,000 years, and these conditions were closely tied to prolonged changes in Pacific Ocean surface temperatures. The findings suggest that rising atmospheric greenhouse gas levels would further contribute to prolonged drought-like conditions in the future.
A region of anomalously warm ocean temperatures is forming in the far northeastern part of the Pacific Ocean. This anomaly resembles the North Pacific “Blob,” which has recurred during the past dry winters and coincided with the “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge,” a persistent region of high atmospheric pressure. It is still unclear how the combination of these phenomena will influence precipitation levels and the timing of precipitation in California.